How investors are valuing the pandemic – TechCrunch

Welcome to TechCrunch Exchange, a weekly startup and market newspaper. It is broadly based Daily column that appears on Additional Crunch, But free, and made your weekend reading. Want it in your inbox every Saturday morning? Sign up Here.

ready? Let’s talk money, startup and spicy IPO rumors.

Kicking off with a little housekeeping: equality Do more stuff now. And TechCrunch has The justice And Primary stage Events are unfolding. I am CRO of zoom interview For later. And the Exchange has some long overdue items coming in next week, including $ 50M and $ 100M ARR updates (Druva, etc.), consumption-based pricing vs. traditional SaaS models (Fastley, Appian, BigCommerce models , Etc.). .), even more. Wow!

This week both DoorDash and AirBnB reported earnings for the first time as public companies, marking their actual graduates in the ranks of unicorns excluded. We are keeping our normal eye on the earnings cycle, quietly, but today we have got some learning for the startup world.

Some basics will help us get started. Doordash Beat growth expectations Reporting revenue of $ 970 million vs. an estimated $ 938 million, in Q4. The difference between the two possibilities comes partly from how new the doordash stock is, and the epidemic has made it difficult to forecast. Despite external growth, shares of Dordash fell sharply after initially reported, although they recovered massively on Friday.

Why the initial dip? I think the company’s net loss was larger than investors had expected – although a large GAAP deficit is the norm for early post-first quarter. The company has probably faced that concern Earning call, Which included a note from the company’s CFO that it is “up in January relative to acceleration in January as well as in Q4.” It is encouraging. On the other hand, the company’s CFO stated that “starting from Q2 onward, we are going to see a shift towards pre-COVID behavior within the customer base.”

To remove: Large companies are anticipating a return to pre-COVID behavior, just not yet. Firms benefiting from COVID-19 are being heavily scrutinized. And they expect the tailwades to fade as the year progresses.

And then there is Airbnb, which is around 16% today. Why? this Beat revenue expectations, While also losing a lot of money. Airbnb had a net loss of 10x higher than Dordash in Q4 2020. So why did Airbnb get a bump while Dordash got dumping? Its large income beat ($ million59 million, instead of an expected $ 4 million), and is likely to increase in the future; Investors are hoping that the current best of AirBnB expectations will also grow further Excess Development down the road.

To remove: Provided that you have a good story to tell about future growth, investors are still ready to accept a sharp loss; The growth business is alive, nevertheless, as companies that can already achieve an increase have increased scrutiny.

For startup, evaluation Pressure or Lift They can come down to the epidemic they are on; Are they on the tail end of their tailwind (remotely focused mother-in-law, perhaps?), Or climbing (restaurant tech, maybe?). Chew something before lifting up.

Market notes

It was a bang week for funding the tours. Crunchbase News, my former journalism house, Is a great piece This year we are seeing a big phase so far. But even on a scale one or two steps down, funding activity was super busy.

A few rounds that I did not get until this week, in which my eye was caught $ 90 million round for Terminus (ABM-centric GTM juicers, I think), Anchorage’s $ 80 million series (Cryptostorage for large sums of money), and Foxtrot Market’s $ 42 million Series B (fast delivery of yuppie and jummer essentials).

Now sitting here, writing a tidbit about each at the end, reminds me of the sheer breadth of the tech market. Termius helps sell to other companies, Anchorage wants to protect your ETH, while Foxtrot wants to help you replenish your breakfast everyday stock before tolerating a dry morning. what one Mix. And each should generate enterprise-acceptable growth, as they have not only raised more capital, but have raised larger rounds to their scheduled maturity (as measured by their listed series phase, though be more cordoned than the Moniker Guide Can.)

I jokingly call this small part of the newsletter market notes, as a joke how can you possibly note the entire market that we care about? These companies and their recent capital violations underline this point.

Various and varied

Finally, two notes from the income call. The first from the route, which is a head scratch, and the second from the results of booking holdings.

I chatted with Alex Timm, CEO of Root Insurance a few moments later this week Dropped numbers. As I did not have much context in the way the investor reacted to its results. I read that Root was super capitalized, and has huge expansion plans. Timm was excited about his company’s superior economics (based on deficit ratios and deficit-adjusted spending, for fans of Insurtech), and growth during the epidemic.

But then today its shares are off 16%. Parsing the analyst call, there is movement in the route’s economic profile (about the premium-coding variance in the coming quarters), where I sit down and make the development of my entire year completely difficult. but this appears in Root’s business is still melting to an extent that is almost refreshing; The company could go public in 2022 with some current development behind it, but instead raised a million dollars last year and is now public.

Despite fellow nemesis player Lemonade continuing and running an impressive valuation, sticking our necks a bit, MetroMile’s stock is also softening, while Root has lost more than half its value from its IPO date. If the current recurrence of some neo-insurance players continues, we may see some private investment slowing into space. ()Less things like this?) This is a possible trend we will be tracking this year.

Next, Booking Holdings, the company that owns the train and other travel assets. Given that booking may contain notes about the future of business travel – we care about the clues coming for remote work and office culture that affect everything from startup hub locations to software sales – Exchange exchanged a call slot and dialed. Company up.

Booking Holdings CEO Glenn Fogel did not comment on how his company was trading at a high level despite a year-over-year decline in revenue. He noted that the epidemic has shaken expectations of conversations, which may limit short-term business travel to future meetings that can now be conducted over video calls. That was good news for future conference trips (TechCrunch, I assume), and future trips were generally longer.

So about the jetting perspective, we don’t know anything yet. Booking Holdings isn’t saying much, perhaps because it doesn’t know when things will change. Fair enough Perhaps we will get a better window after three months of the vaccine rollout which may look like a partial return to an old normal.

And to close, you can read Apex Holdings’ SPAC presentation Here, And is of Markfed Here. Also I wrote about the buy-now-pay-later location Here, Riffed on Digital Ocean IPO with Ron Miller Here, And Toast’s evaluation and Olo’s first film screened here.

Hug, and have a beautiful weekend!

Alex